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本文利用435名青春期少女6～14岁生长发育纵向调查资料，研究身体形态发育水平及发育速度与月经初潮年龄的关系，并用Cox线性Logistic模型，对用反映形态发育水平及发育速度的指标进行月经初潮年龄的预测方法研究．入选模型对预测有显著贡献的因素为：年龄、该年龄时的瘦体重、该年龄小一岁到该年龄时的瘦体重增长量、该年龄小二岁到该年龄小一岁时的瘦体重增长量等4项指标．该模型预测符合率较高．达87.0％，故有一定实用价值．
This article uses 435 adolescent girls 6 to 14 years old growth and development of longitudinal survey data to study the relationship between body shape development and development speed and menarche age, and using the Cox linear Logistic model, using indicators reflecting the level of developmental level and developmental speed of menstruation Menarche age prediction method. The factors that make a significant contribution to the prediction by the selected model are: age, lean body mass at that age, lean body mass increase from the age of one year old to the age, lean body mass at the age of two years old to one year old. Growth and other four indicators. The model predicts a high rate of conformity. Up to 87.0%, it has a certain practical value.