本文突破以传统绩效类指标为预警指标的模式,选取现金流指标并采用判别分析法,对财务危机发生前一年和前两年的制造行业样本数据进行实证研究,建立了以现金流指标为测量标准、针对具体行业的中长期财务预警模型。模型能够从现金流角度判断企业是否存在财务困境,具有较好的预警作用。 This paper breaks through the traditional performance index as the early warning indicator mode, selects the cash flow index and uses the discriminant analysis method to make an empirical study of the manufacturing industry sample data of the previous year and the previous two years before the financial crisis, and establishes a cash flow index Measurement standards, specific to the industry long-term financial early warning model. The model can judge whether the financial distress exist in the enterprise from the cash flow perspective and has a good early warning function.