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名义汇率贬值影响贸易收支的效应可以分解为价格效应和数量效应,本文从理论上推导一般贸易和加工贸易的价格效应和数量效应的决定因素,发现两种贸易模式的价格效应受到汇率传递效应影响,而数量效应受到产品需求、供给价格弹性影响,加工贸易还受到进口中间品产出弹性以及资源重新配置的成本弹性影响。本文的实证结果显示:人民币有效汇率变动对一般贸易和总贸易影响的方向一致,对加工贸易影响的方向相反,人民币对美元汇率对三者的影响方向一致。从价格效应和数量效应的比较来看,在一般贸易中,人民币有效汇率贬值价格效应和数量效应方向相反,但价格效应小于数量效应;同样在加工贸易中,两者方向相反,价格效应小于数量效应;在总贸易中,两种效应方向相反,但价格效应大于数量效应。因此,人民币有效汇率贬值导致一般贸易和总贸易收支恶化,加工贸易收支改善。人民币对美元汇率变动在一般贸易中价格效应和数量效应方向相同,其他和人民币有效汇率情况相同。进一步来看,贸易收支盈余是价格效应和数量效应两者的结合,人民币有效汇率贬值和人民币对美元汇率贬值都不能够改善中国的总体贸易收支。
The effect of nominal exchange rate devaluation on trade balance can be decomposed into price effect and quantity effect. This paper theoretically deduces the determinants of the price effect and quantity effect of general trade and processing trade and finds that the price effect of the two trade patterns is affected by the exchange rate While the quantitative effect is affected by product demand and supply price elasticity. The processing trade is also affected by the elasticity of the imported intermediate products and the cost elasticity of resource allocation. The empirical results show that: the changes of the effective exchange rate of Renminbi have the same effect on the general trade and the general trade, while the impact on the processing trade has the opposite direction, the impact of the exchange rate of Renminbi to the U.S. dollar has the same direction on the three. From the comparison of price effect and quantity effect, in general trade, the price effect and quantity effect of RMB depreciation devaluation are in the opposite direction, but the price effect is less than the quantitative effect. Also in the processing trade, the opposite effect of the price effect is less than the quantity Effect; in the total trade, the two effects in the opposite direction, but the price effect is greater than the number of effects. As a result, devaluation of the RMB’s effective exchange rate has led to a deterioration in the general trade and general trade receipts and payments and an improvement in the balance of payments for processing trade. The change in the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar has the same direction of price effect and quantity effect in general trade, and the other is the same as the effective exchange rate of RMB. Further, the balance of trade surplus is a combination of price effect and quantity effect. The devaluation of RMB effective exchange rate and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar can not improve China’s overall trade balance.