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本文在对我国投资率和投资效率进行历史走势分析和国际比较分析的基础上,通过建立非线性回归模型,实证分析了我国投资率与投资效率的关系。结果表明,我国投资率与投资效率在过去较长时期里表现出一定的正相关性,但近期二者关系出现负相关迹象;与样本国家相比,1978—2012年间,我国投资率一直最高,投资效率高于发达国家但低于新兴市场国家;实证结果表明,我国投资率与投资效率具有先升后降的“倒U型”关系,投资率是投资效率的格兰杰成因。目前我国的投资率水平已经超过了使投资效率处于最优的值,投资率升高会使投资效率下降。因此,我国应该通过合理调控投资率,来促进投资效率提升。
Based on the historical trend analysis and international comparative analysis of investment rate and investment efficiency in our country, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between investment rate and investment efficiency in our country by establishing a nonlinear regression model. The results show that the investment rate and investment efficiency in our country have shown a certain positive correlation in the past long time, but there is negative correlation between them recently. Compared with the sample countries, the investment rate in our country has been the highest from 1978 to 2012, The investment efficiency is higher than that in developed countries but lower than that in emerging countries. The empirical results show that the investment rate of our country has the relationship of “inverted U-shaped” with the investment efficiency going up and down. The investment rate is the Granger cause of investment efficiency. At present, the investment rate of our country has exceeded the value that makes the investment efficiency at an optimal value. The increase of the investment rate will reduce the investment efficiency. Therefore, our country should promote the investment efficiency by reasonably adjusting the investment rate.