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以长武生态站水肥产量效应的长期定位试验资料为基础，结合模型预测的分析方法，揭示出黄土高原旱作塬区高产农田的水分环境效应在于过度消耗土壤水库，降低土壤含水量，使作物生长转而过度依靠年度降水，出现年际产量的高波动性。指出旱作高产高波动性具有可持续性，它是当前旱作农业的基本特点。
Based on the long-term experimental data of water and fertilizer yield in Changwu Ecological Station and the analysis of model predictions, it is revealed that the water environment effect of high-yield farmland in the dryland of Loess Plateau is over-consuming soil reservoirs and decreasing soil water content, Growth in turn over-reliance on annual precipitation, the annual output of high volatility. It is pointed out that the sustainability of high-yielding and high-fluctuation in dry farming is the basic feature of current dry farming.