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在我国建立一套证券市场风险预警指标体系用以防范和监测金融风险势在必行。制约证券市场预警指标体系的主要因素有市盈率、广义货币增长率、股票波动率,以及高额市场交易总量。可以把这些因素再细分为国际因素指标、国内经济因素指标、证券市场因素指标、外围因素指标和金融机构风险因素指标等。这种通过因子分析法构建的一套能够反映真实风险状况的证券风险预警指标体系具有客观性,能够看出具体哪些方面的因素给证券市场带来了较大的影响。实证分析表明,2015年中国的股灾就是金融杠杆导致货币大量进入股市,而预警指标没有得到充分反应的结果。因此,建立中国股市风险的预警指标体系,可以有效防范股市风险,对中国股市的稳定健康发展非常有益。
It is imperative to establish a set of risk early warning indicator system in our country to prevent and monitor financial risks. Constraints on the stock market early warning indicator system, the main factors of price-earnings ratio, broad money growth rate, stock volatility, and the high volume of market transactions. These factors can be further subdivided into indicators of international factors, indicators of domestic economic factors, indicators of the securities market, indicators of external factors and indicators of financial institutions’ risk factors. This set of factor analysis method to establish a set of securities risk early warning indicator system that can reflect the real risk status is objectivity, and it can be seen that the specific factors have a greater impact on the stock market. Empirical analysis shows that in 2015 China’s stock market disaster was the result of a large amount of money entering the stock market led by financial leverage, but the warning indicator was not fully responded. Therefore, establishing an early warning index system for the risk of China’s stock market can effectively prevent the stock market risk and is very beneficial to the stable and healthy development of the Chinese stock market.