目前中国经济,除了流动性泛滥、资产泡沫化之外,存在着两大症结——银行去中介化和经济去实业化。这两大症结不除,经济很难回到双位数的增长。不要预言通胀何时见顶,见顶之后可能还有新顶;不要预言增长何时触底,触底之后也许又有新底。不要预言货币政策何时转松,任何定向宽松估计都是技术性的,货币环境正常化才是今后若干年的主调;不要预言房价何时 At present, there are two main cruxes in China’s economy, in addition to the proliferation of liquidity and the asset bubble. The banks are interdependent and the economy de-industrialized. These two major problems are not eliminated, the economy is difficult to return to double-digit growth. Do not predict when inflation will peak, and possibly new after peak; do not predict when growth will bottom out, maybe bottom again. Do not predict when the monetary policy will turn loose, any targeted easing estimates are technical, the normalization of the monetary environment is the tone for several years to come; do not predict when the price