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基于1954—2010年疏勒河干流出山径流量、2000—2010年流域内灌区水资源供应量、灌区农作物种植类型、农作物及林草地面积等资料,通过建立系统动力学模型,探讨了气候变化背景下疏勒河径流量对绿洲的影响。结果表明:绿洲受径流量变化影响显著,若出山径流量按1954—2010年变化趋势增加,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益将有不同程度增加;若出山径流量减小,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益亦相应减小。2020年出山径流量较2010年分别减少5%、10%、15%时,绿洲面积和农业产值相应减小4.5%、8.9%、13.4%。在径流量不变情况下,若普及常规节水,林、草地面积均增加16%以上;若普及高效节水,林、草地面积均扩大54.7%;若提高渠系利用率到0.70,林草地面积扩大5%以上,总产值增加5.4%;若提高渠系利用率到0.75,林草地面积增加12%以上,总产值增加12.2%。
Based on the data of the outflow from the Shule River in the runoff from 1954 to 2010, the water supply in the irrigated area during 2000-2010, the types of crops in the irrigated area, the area of crops and grassland, the paper established a system dynamics model to discuss the background of climate change Impact of the Shule River Runoff on Oases. The results show that the oasis is affected by the variation of runoff. If the runoff of mountain is increased by 1954-2010, the oasis area, agricultural output and ecological benefit will increase to some extent. If the runoff decreases, the oasis area, agricultural output , Ecological benefit is also reduced accordingly. When the outflow of mountainous streams in 2020 dropped by 5%, 10% and 15% respectively from 2010, the oasis area and agricultural output decreased by 4.5%, 8.9% and 13.4% respectively. In the case of constant runoff, if the conventional water-saving is adopted, the area of forest and grassland will increase by more than 16%; if the efficiency and water saving are popularized, the area of forest and grassland will be increased by 54.7%; if the canal utilization rate is increased to 0.70, The area expanded by more than 5% and the total output value increased by 5.4%. If the canal utilization rate was increased to 0.75, the area of forest and grassland increased by 12% and the output value increased by 12.2%.