The Uncertainty of Mesoscale Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South China and the Ensemble Simu

来源 :气象学报(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:xiaoyaozhu
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
In the context of non-hydrostatic MM5 version we have explored the impact of convective parameterization schemes on uncertainty in mesoscale numerical prediction of South China heavy rain and mesoscale heavy rainfall short-range ensemble simulation by using two kinds of physics perturbation methods through a heavy rain case occurring on June 8, 1998 in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces. The results show the physical process of impacts of convective schemes on heavy rainfall is that different latent heat of convective condensation produced by different convective schemes can make local temperature perturbation, leading to the difference of local vertical speed by the intrinsic dynamic and thermodynamic processes of atmosphere,and therefore, making difference of the timing, locations and strength of mesh scale and subgrid scale precipitation later. New precipitations become the new source of latent heat and temperature perturbation,which finally make the dynamic and thermodynamic structures different in the simulations. Two kinds of methods are used to construct different model version stochastically. The first one is using different convective parameterization and planetary boundary layer schemes, the second is adjusting different parameters of convective trigger functions in Grell scheme. The results indicate that the first ensemble simulations can provide more uncertainty information of location and strength of heavy rainfall than the second. The single determinate predictions of heavy rain are unstable; physics ensemble predictions can reflect the uncertainty of heavy rain, provide more useful guidance and have higher application value.Physics ensembles suggest that model errors should be taken into consideration in the heavy rainfall ensembles. Although the method of using different parameters in Grell scheme could not produce good results, how to construct the perturbation model or adjust the parameter in one scheme according to the physical meaning of the parameter still needs further investigation. The limitation of the current study is that it is based on a single case and more cases will be addressed in the future researches.
其他文献
Using Isothermal Adsorption/Desorption System Model IS-100 and Electrohydraulic Servo Rock System Model MTS815 as the main apparatuses and collecting samples fr
A viable option for increasing nitrogen (N) use efficiency and mitigation of negative impacts of N on the environment is to capitalize on multi-element interact
随着我国公路建设的飞速发展,时高等级公路建设中广泛使用的沥青混凝土路面质量的要求也越来越高.本文作者结合工程实例,计时一级公路沥青路面工程施工的质量控制,激光纹理评
The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration havebeen analyzed in 70 and 140 a in
Numerical simulation of fluid migration during the ore-forming process of the Carboniferous exhalationsedimentary (Sedex) massive sulfide deposits in the Tongli
Unlike acceleration, velocity, and displacement, the time derivative of acceleration (TDoA) of ground motion has not been extensively studied. In this paper, th
The Tibetan Plateau, the Roof of the World, is the highest plateau with a mean elevation of 4000 m. It is characterized by high levels of solar radiation, low a
The impacts of temperature, photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on CO2 flux above broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest in th
为探究吕家坨井田地质构造格局,根据钻孔勘探资料,采用分形理论和趋势面分析方法,研究了井田7
Based on the improved interaction mechanism of two-layer model, this paper proposed Pixel Component Arranging and Comparing Algorithm (PCACA) and theoretically