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为给交通管控提供决策支持以降低道路事故率,在对雨天高速公路弯道车辆受力和可能交通事故分析的基础上,建立一个雨天可能发生事故的单向双车道元胞自动机(CA)模型。通过仿真试验和实际统计事故率的比较对模型予以初步验证。对不同可变速度限制(VSL)及道路几何线性参数值的交通流非线性行为进行仿真和事故概率计算。结果表明:VSL是雨天降低事故概率非常有效的方式,特别在弯道长度大和弯道半径小的路段愈加明显;应依据所提出的CA模型的仿真结果和具体道路实际,针对不同的降雨强度设置不同的速度限制值,以保证交通安全。
In order to provide decision support for traffic control to reduce the rate of road accidents, a one-way two-lane cellular automaton (CA), which may cause accidents in rainy weather, is established based on the analysis of the forces and possible traffic accidents on the cornering vehicles on the Yutian expressway. model. The model is preliminarily verified through comparison between simulation test and actual statistical accident rate. The simulation and accident probability calculation of traffic flow nonlinearities with different variable speed limits (VSL) and road geometry parameters are carried out. The results show that VSL is a very effective way to reduce accident probability in rainy days, especially in the sections with large curve length and small curve radius. Based on the proposed CA model simulation results and the actual road conditions, different rainfall intensity settings Different speed limits to ensure traffic safety.