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本文利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,在剔除国际棉价下行对国内影响的基础上,基于补贴来源于税收的财政机制,对棉花目标价格改革的经济影响进行了分析。结果显示,该项改革无疑对建立棉花市场价格形成机制、提高纺织业竞争力作用明显,纺织产业链上各个产业的产出均扩张。但是,该项改革在短期内也存在一定的财政成本,会造成0.02%的GDP损失和0.04%的就业减少。就本文揭示的棉花价格影响机制来看,市场化改革也要关注其初期财政成本,关注政策的可持续性。
Based on CGE model, this paper analyzes the economic impact of cotton target price reform based on the subsidy of fiscal mechanism, which is based on tax revenue, excluding the domestic impact of the international cotton price downturn. The results show that the reform undoubtedly plays an obvious role in establishing a cotton market price formation mechanism and enhancing the competitiveness of the textile industry, and the output of various industries in the textile industry chain has expanded. However, this reform also has certain fiscal costs in the short term, causing 0.02% of the GDP loss and 0.04% of the job losses. From the perspective of the mechanism of cotton price impact disclosed in this paper, market-oriented reforms should also pay attention to their initial fiscal costs and pay attention to the sustainability of policies.