论文部分内容阅读
目的分析2014年国家传染病自动预警系统(预警系统)在全国的运行情况,为有效改进与完善预警系统提供依据。方法收集2014年预警系统在中国内地31个省份对33种传染病产生的预警信号数量、响应情况和判断结果,分析预警信号的响应率和响应时间,并与预警系统2011-2013年的运行结果进行比较。结果 2014年预警系统共发出386 578条预警信号,信号响应率为99.24%(383 637条),(P_(25)~P_(75))为1.0(0.4~3.8)h。2014年的信号整体响应率和24 h内响应率较2011-2013年水平有所提高。其中,固定阈值预警方法产生163 649条预警信号,预警信号响应率为99.21%(162 361/163 649),(P_(25)~P_(75))为1.0(0.2~5.3)h;通过初步核实、现场调查与实验室检测,最终确认了80923例病例,占预警信号数的49.50%。时间模型预警方法共产生222 929条预警信号,平均每县每周约产生预警信号1.48条,其中3159条预警信号(1.42%)经初步核实后被判断为疑似事件;预警信号响应率为99.26%(221 273/222 929),(P_(25)~P_(75))为1.1(0.5~2.9)h。结论 2014年预警系统的预警信号响应率和响应及时性均保持较高水平,2014年的信号整体响应率和24 h内响应率较2011-2013年进一步提高,但疑似事件信号占全部预警信号的比例仍有待改善。
Objective To analyze the operational status of the national automatic warning system for infectious diseases (early warning system) nationwide in 2014 and provide the basis for effectively improving and improving the early warning system. Methods The number, response and judgment of early warning system to 33 kinds of infectious diseases in 31 provinces in mainland of China were collected in 2014. The response rate and response time of early warning signal were analyzed and compared with those of early warning system in 2011-2013 Compare. Results A total of 386 578 early-warning signals were issued in the early warning system in 2014, with signal response rates of 99.24% (383 637) and (P_ (25) ~ P_ (75)) of 1.0 (0.4 ~ 3.8) h. In 2014, the overall response rate and the response rate within 24 h increased from the 2011-2013 level. Among them, 163 649 early-warning signals were generated by the fixed-threshold early warning method, the early-warning signal response rate was 99.21% (162 361/163 649), and (P 25- P 75) was 1.0 (0.2-5.3) h. Verification, on-site investigation and laboratory testing. Finally, 80,923 cases were confirmed, accounting for 49.50% of the number of early warning signals. A total of 222,929 early-warning signals were generated by the time-model early-warning method. An average of 1.48 early-warning signals were generated in each county every week, of which 3159 early warning signals (1.42%) were judged as suspected events after initial verification. The early warning signal response rate was 99.26% (221 273/222 929), (P 25- P 75) was 1.1 (0.5-2.9 h). Conclusion The response rate and response timeliness of early warning system in 2014 were all kept at a high level. In 2014, the overall response rate and the response rate within 24 h increased further from 2011 to 2013. However, the number of suspected events accounted for the entire early warning signal The ratio still needs improvement.