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应急资源需求预测是应急资源优化配置的前提和基础。针对应急资源需求预测的特点,提出了基于风险分析方法和案例推理技术(Case-based Reasoning,CBR)的应急资源需求预测方法。这种方法可以对应急资源的需求数量、需求质量和需求种类进行预测。最后,以一个预测案例来说明应急资源需求预测方法在实际中的应用过程。研究表明,这种方法可以满足应急的需要,为今后应急资源的储备、配置等提供依据,也可以为拟建的应急资源配置决策系统提供方法和模型支持。
Emergency resource demand forecasting is the prerequisite and foundation for the optimal allocation of emergency resources. According to the characteristics of emergency resource demand forecasting, a forecast method of emergency resource demand based on risk analysis and case-based reasoning (CBR) is proposed. This method can forecast the number of emergency resources, the quality of demand and the type of demand. Finally, a prediction case is used to illustrate the practical application of the method for forecasting the demand of emergency resources. The research shows that this method can meet the needs of emergency and provide the basis for the future reserve and configuration of emergency resources. It can also provide the method and model support for the proposed emergency resource allocation decision system.