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通过构建城市环境压力指数(EPI),利用脱钩弹性分析方法对北京市经济增长与环境压力的脱钩程度、演变规律以及影响因素进行了分析。结果显示:北京城市环境压力总体指数呈现逐年下降的趋势,各分指数除土地压力指数(LPI)呈现小幅度波动上升趋势,其余也均呈现下降趋势;北京城市经济增长与环境压力的脱钩弹性指数(DEI)呈现强脱钩现象,其演变轨迹以2011和2013年为拐点,可以分为“降低—增长—降低”三个阶段;DEI的分解结果显示,污染和土地压力对DEI的负面作用最为显著;人口和经济因素与DEI的发展协调程度逐步提升;北京城市环境压力的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)呈现“N型”特征,预计在未来有潜在的上升趋势。据此,提出了若干政策建议。
By building the pressure index of urban environment (EPI), this paper analyzes the decoupling degree, evolution law and influencing factors of economic growth and environmental pressure in Beijing using the method of decoupling elasticity analysis. The results show that the overall index of urban environmental pressure in Beijing shows a trend of declining year by year. The index of subsided land pressure (LPI) shows a slight upward trend and the rest shows a downward trend. The de-indexing index of Beijing’s urban economic growth and environmental pressure (DEI) shows a strong decoupling phenomenon. The trajectory of the DEI can be divided into three stages of “decrease-increase-decrease” in 2011 and 2013. The decomposition of DEI shows that the negative effect of pollution and land pressure on DEI The most obvious is the coordination of population and economic factors with the development of DEI. The environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) of urban environmental pressure in Beijing shows the characteristics of “N-type” and is expected to have a potential upward trend in the future. Accordingly, a number of policy recommendations have been made.