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由临界地震的概念和外推 Bowman等人关于孕育未来地震半径的思想 ,发展出一个临界圆重叠方法来寻找未来强震的临界区域位置。模拟实验的对比检验表明这种方法是有效的。使用主震前一定时间内地震目录 ,这个方法能找出临界区域 ,而未来震中位置将位于临界区域内或其边缘。使用新西兰和中国新疆南部的中强震目录检验 ,该方法可以在震前较准确地定位出强震的临界区域位置。使用中国 1 995年至 1 999年 8月的小震目录 ,给出 1 999年 8月以后中国未来强震临界区域的分布 ,而 1 999年 8月以后至 2 0 0 0年 6月 1 6日 (截稿日期 )在中国 (除西藏地区外 )所发生的 5.0级以上的地震几乎均位于所给出的临界区域内。
From the concept of critical earthquake and the extrapolation of Bowman et al.’s idea of breeding future earthquake radius, a critical circle overlap method is developed to find the location of the critical region for future strong earthquakes. The comparison test of simulation experiment shows that this method is effective. Using a catalog of earthquakes within a certain period of time prior to the main shock, this method can find the critical area, while the location of the future epicenter will be within or near the critical area. Using the mid-strong earthquake catalog test in New Zealand and southern Xinjiang, China, this method can accurately locate the critical region of strong earthquakes before the earthquake. Using the catalog of small earthquakes in China from 1995 to August 1999, the distribution of the critical area of future strong earthquakes in China after August 1999 is given. From August 1999 to June 2000, 16 Day (deadline) Most of the earthquakes above 5.0 in China (except Tibet) are located within the critical region given.