【摘 要】
：
Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pa
【机 构】
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State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,
论文部分内容阅读
Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific （WNP） summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and sevenmonth lead retrospective forecasts （hindcasts） of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts （ENSEMBLES） for the period of 1960 2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.
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