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2012年春节后猪肉需求大幅下降,虽是季节性规律,但今年跌幅明显较往年大,终端消费低迷不振,与此同时屠宰企业压低收购价,轮储、放储和猪肉进口的量增价扬对生猪市场的冲击也较大。春节后生猪价格连续10周下滑,比春节前价格下降近一成半;4月初仔猪价格年内首次出现回落,由于以当前仔猪价格补栏后其出栏时的成本线已达当前的出栏肉猪价,从而抑制了仔猪补栏;鲜猪肉批发价格亦出现连续10周下滑,同比涨幅迅速收窄。猪粮比价自春节前一周开始连续回落,养殖盈利大幅缩水,阶段性底部特征已经出现。后期受生猪供应量影响以及生猪进口的回落,预计生猪价格很难继续下跌,一旦需求回暖,猪价有望反弹上涨。
Demand for pork dropped sharply after the Spring Festival in 2012. Although it is a seasonal pattern, the decline in this year was significantly larger than in previous years. The terminal consumer slump was sluggish. In the meantime, the slaughtering enterprises reduced the purchase price, the amount of storage, storage and import of pork The impact on the pig market is also larger. After the Spring Festival, the price of hogs dropped for 10 consecutive weeks, down nearly 10% from the price before the Spring Festival. In early April, the price of piglets dropped for the first time during the year. Since the current cost of slaughtering piglets after the current piglet price has been increased, , Thus restrain the piglets make up bar; Fresh pork wholesale prices also showed a continuous 10-week decline, an increase year-on-year narrowed rapidly. Pig food parity since the beginning of the week before the Spring Festival began to decline continuously, farming profits have shrunk dramatically, the bottom of the stage characteristics have emerged. In the latter part of the year, due to the impact of pig supply and the drop of pig imports, pig prices are unlikely to continue to fall. Once the demand is warmer, pig prices are expected to rebound.