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面对全球变暖的大趋势,气候变化对水文水资源系统的影响逐渐得到重视。为了研究石羊河流域水文气候的变化规律,采用奇异谱分析方法对流域产流区1959-2008年气温、降雨和径流的月序列的周期与趋势变化进行分析,结果表明:石羊河流域近50年来气温序列存在一年、半年以及109个月三种振荡周期,气温变化趋势不显著;降雨序列主要存在一年、半年、4月以及156月四种振荡周期,降雨量的变化有较明显的增加趋势;径流序列主要存在一年、半年、41月以及65月四种振荡周期,径流量变化整体处于波动减小的趋势中。该结果对石羊河流域气候变化与同期径流变化的趋势给出了明确的物理理解,为未来趋势的预测以及流域水资源管理决策的制定有一定的参考意义。
In the face of the general trend of global warming, the impact of climate change on the system of hydrological and water resources has gradually been taken seriously. In order to study the variation of hydrological climate in Shiyang River Basin, the period and trend of monthly series of temperature, rainfall and runoff from 1959 to 2008 in the catchment area were analyzed by using singular spectrum analysis. The results show that: In the past 50 years, there are three kinds of oscillation periods, one year, six months and 109 months, and the trend of temperature is not significant. There are four kinds of oscillation periods, one year, six months, April and 156 months, and the change of rainfall is obvious . The runoff sequence mainly has four kinds of oscillation periods of one year, six months, 41 months and 65 months, and the variation of runoff is in the trend of decreasing. The results provide a clear physical understanding of the trend of climate change and runoff in the Shiyang River Basin, which is of certain reference significance for the future trend forecasting and the formulation of basin water resources management decision-making.