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国际油轮运价指数作为国际油轮运输市场的晴雨表,其波动直观的展现国际油轮运输市场的表现。对国际油轮运价指数进行深入的研究,分析其波动规律,对油轮运输市场的经营者把握市场动态,规避金融风险起到至关重要的作用。本文使用金融时间序列研究的GARCH模型,对国际油轮运价指数的波动性进行定量分析,希望能够给相关从业者提供一些借鉴。
As a barometer of the international oil tanker market, the international tanker freight index shows the performance of the international tanker shipping market intuitively. Conducting an in-depth study of the international oil freight index and analyzing its fluctuations have played a crucial role in the operators of the oil tanker transportation market in grasping the market dynamics and avoiding financial risks. This paper uses the GARCH model of financial time series to quantitatively analyze the volatility of the international tanker freight index, hoping to provide some reference for the relevant practitioners.