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文章基于新经济地理学中间投入品模型,将户籍制度、土地产权制度和不同劳动力流动模式等因素纳入研究框架中,构建了中国户籍制度演变模型,并通过数值计算模拟了户籍制度和土地产权制度改革对农村劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明:(1)不同户籍制度的改革路径极大地影响了农村劳动力转移和经济发展,如果降低户籍制度对劳动力流动的束缚,经济系统会释放巨大的改革红利,而维持当前户籍制度不变将遭受较大损失;(2)不同土地产权制度的改革路径影响了户籍制度的改革效果,如果农民工“带着土地”进行转移将会放大户籍制度改革所释放的红利。这表明户籍制度改革和土地产权制度改革要协同进行,不仅要减少户籍制度对农民工迁移的束缚,还应保留其农用地承包权和宅基地使用权。文章的研究不仅丰富和完善了现有劳动力迁移理论,也为地方政府相关决策提供了新的思路。
Based on the new input model of economic geography, this paper includes the household registration system, land ownership system and different labor mobility patterns into the research framework, and establishes the evolvement model of China’s household registration system. The paper also simulates the household registration system and land ownership system The Impact of Reform on Rural Labor Mobility. The results show that: (1) The reform of different household registration systems has greatly affected the transfer of rural labor force and economic development. If we reduce the bondage of the household registration system to labor mobility, the economic system will release a huge reform bonus while maintaining the current household registration system (2) The reform path of different land ownership systems has affected the reform of the household registration system. If the migrant workers “move with the land ” will amplify the dividends released by the household registration system reform. This shows that the reform of the household registration system and the reform of the land property system should be carried out in coordination with each other. It is necessary to not only reduce the captives of the household registration system on the migrations of migrant workers, but also retain the right to use farmland and the rights to use house sites. The study of the article not only enriches and perfects the existing theory of labor migration, but also provides new ideas for the relevant decisions of local governments.