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文章基于1993—2012年中美两国批发零售业增加值和GDP的相关数据,运用协整分析法,并考虑了非平稳性及误差修正项的格兰杰因果检验法,来研究中美两国批发零售业与经济增长之间关系的异同。实证研究表明:在长期,中美两国批发零售业与经济增长之间都存在长期均衡关系,且美国的批发零售与GDP增长的关系比中国的更加密切;在短期,中美两国批发零售业与经济增长之间均存在波动关系,且一旦两个变量关系失衡,相比于美国,中国的批发零售业与经济增长二者之间对该失衡的修正要更加及时。中国存在从批发零售业到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系,美国存在从经济增长到批发零售业的单向格兰杰因果关系。
Based on the data of the added value of wholesale and retail trade and GDP from 1993 to 2012 in China and the United States, cointegration analysis method and the Granger causality test of non-stationary and error correction are used to study the relationship between the two Similarities and Differences between the Relationship between Wholesale and Retail Trade and Economic Growth in China. Empirical studies show that: in the long run, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the wholesale and retail trade in China and the United States and economic growth, and the relationship between wholesale and retail sales in the United States and GDP growth is closer than in China; in the short run, the wholesale and retail sales between China and the United States There is a fluctuating relationship between industry and economic growth, and once the relationship between the two variables is unbalanced, the correction of the imbalance between the wholesale and retail industry in China and economic growth is more timely than in the United States. China has one-way Granger causality from wholesale and retail to economic growth. There is one-way Granger causality in the United States from economic growth to wholesale and retail.