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目的初步了解男同性恋人群数量,为控制艾滋病疫情提供科学依据。方法同时采用除数法、捕获—再捕获法在10天内对莱芜市8个男同性恋活动场所展开计数调查。结果除数法计数结果为1192人,估算男同性恋浮现率为0.26%;捕获—再捕获法结果为1121人(95%CI为937~1105),估算浮现率为0.24%,两种方法的估计数差别无统计学意义。结论除数法易于操作,进展顺利,结果可信度较高,但花费较大;捕获—再捕获法用时短,花费低。两种方法可以满足对男同性恋浮现人数的估计。
Objective To understand the population of gay men and provide a scientific basis for controlling the epidemic of AIDS. Methods Simultaneous use of divisor method, capture-recapture method to count eight gay places in Laiwu City within 10 days. Results The result of the divisor method was 1,192 and the estimated incidence of gay men was 0.26%. The number of capture-recapture methods was 1121 (95% CI 937-1105), and the estimated floating rate was 0.24%. Estimates of the two methods The difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion The divisor method is easy to operate, and it is progressing well. The result is more reliable but costly. The capture-recapture method is short-lived and low-cost. Two ways to meet the estimates of the number of gay men emerging.