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出生性别比失调和随生育水平下降而来的人口结构转变的双重作用，可能导致中国未来婚姻市场两性人口失衡。其中，夫妇年龄差规范的存在使得人口年龄结构制约着婚姻匹配。本文利用中国年龄结构波动对婚姻市场的一次“自然实验”，分析了婚姻拥挤因素对人们婚姻行为、婚姻状况的影响。研究表明，由于人口年龄结构变动导致的婚姻拥挤对夫妇平均年龄差及其年龄差分布都有较为显著的影响．而处于婚姻拥挤状态的男性和女性在完婚途径和婚姻状况方面又有所差异。
The dual effects of the imbalance of sex ratio at birth and the demographic transition brought about by declining birth rates may lead to an imbalance in the gender population in China’s future marriage market. Among them, the existence of couple age difference makes the age structure of the population restrict the marriage match. In this paper, a “natural experiment” on the marriages using the fluctuation of age structure in China is conducted to analyze the impact of the congested marriages on the marriage behavior and marital status of people. Studies have shown that marital congestion due to changes in the age structure of the population has a more significant effect on the average age difference of couples and their age distribution. In contrast, males and females in a state of overcrowding also differ in their marital status and marital status.