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财政政策一直是我国宏观经济调控的主要方式,并在需求管理中发挥了重要作用。本文定量描述和检验了我国财政政策工具与经济周期波动之间的相依性,在结构VAR模型中刻画了财政政策的作用和反馈过程,并发现我国财政政策操作的相机选择性依赖经济周期的阶段性。在目前我国进入新经济周期的态势下,应当及时调整财政政策的期限结构和政策工具,加强财政政策与货币政策的政策组合作用,以保持经济快速稳定增长。
Fiscal policy has always been the main mode of macroeconomic regulation and control in our country and has played an important role in demand management. This paper quantitatively describes and tests the interdependence between fiscal policy instruments and economic cycle fluctuations in China, and depicts the role and feedback process of fiscal policy in the structural VAR model. It also finds that the camera operated by our fiscal policy is selectively dependent on the stage of the economic cycle Sex. At a time when China is entering a new economic cycle, it should timely adjust the term structure and policy instruments of fiscal policy and strengthen the policy mix of fiscal policy and monetary policy so as to maintain rapid and steady economic growth.