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本研究运用Logistic回归统计方法在地理信息系统技术支持下来确定影响牛蒡子分布各生态因子,建立牛蒡子的Logistic模型,预测了牛蒡子资源在我国分布情况。结果表明:(1)Logistic回归建立的模型满足统计学检验,能够有效对牛蒡子的资源分布进行有效预测。(2)预测结果为牛蒡子资源分布沿西南-东北方向呈现条带状分布,主要分布在东北、华北和西南地区。(3)部分区域与药典记载不一致,其原因可能为人为干扰和气候变化。
In this study, Logistic regression method was used to determine the ecological factors that influence the distribution of Arctium lappa under the support of GIS. Logistic model of Arctium lappa was established and the distribution of Arctium lappa in China was predicted. The results show that: (1) The model established by Logistic regression satisfies the statistical test, which can effectively predict the resource distribution of Arctium lappa. (2) The prediction results showed that the distribution of Arctium lappa resources was banded along the southwest-northeast direction, mainly distributed in the northeast, north and southwest regions. (3) inconsistent records of some areas and the Pharmacopoeia, which may be due to human interference and climate change.