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Asaoka法、GM(1,1)模型和灰色Verhulst模型都是地基沉降预测中的常用模型。通过分析Asaoka方程与两种灰色模型之间的联系,指出灰色模型理论与Asaoka法一阶微分方程具有一致性,可以利用GM(1,1)模型代替Asaoka法进行沉降预测;灰色Verhulst模型是参数收敛的时变参数Asaoka方程。分析指出三种方法都存在两点不足,即只能应用于等时距沉降数据分析以及参数求解精度还可以进一步提高,从而建立了改进的GM(1,1)模型和改进的灰色Verhulst模型,最后通过工程实例说明了改进灰色模型的具体应用。
The Asaoka method, the GM (1,1) model and the gray Verhulst model are all common models in the prediction of foundation settlement. By analyzing the relationship between Asaoka equation and two gray models, it is pointed out that the gray model theory is consistent with the first-order differential equation of Asaoka method, and the GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the settlement of Asaoka. The gray Verhulst model is a parameter Asaoka equation for the convergence of time-varying parameters. The analysis shows that there are two shortcomings of the three methods, that is, the method can only be applied to the analysis of equidistance subsidence data and the accuracy of parameter solving can be further improved, and the improved GM (1,1) model and the improved gray Verhulst model are established. At last, the concrete application of the improved gray model is illustrated by engineering examples.