预言(从预知到预测)在社会学具有悠久的历史。在二十世纪三十年代,主要的社会学预测是由吉尔菲兰(S.C.Gilfillan)和奥格本(W.F.Ogburn)作出的,主要的目的是预测个人行为,这种情况一直持续到五十年代。反对社会学预言的论据主要分三类:(a)揭露性的论据:社会学不是一门真正的科学,应该停止觊觎象预测那样的科学权利。这种看法与今天否定社会学的主要基调相吻合。(b)实际性的论据,即预言失败的一览表。在利普塞特 Prophecy (from anticipation to prediction) has a long history in sociology. In the 1930s, the major sociological projections were made by SC Gilfillan and WFOgburn with the main purpose of predicting individual behavior, which continued until the 1950s . There are three main types of argument against sociological prophecy: (a) Uncovering the argument that sociology is not a real science and that it should be stopped as a scientific right. This view is consistent with today's main tone of negation of sociology. (b) Practical arguments, a list of predictions of failure. In Lipset