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为科学检验我国城镇居民的房地产财富效应,以生命周期-持久收入假说为理论基础,通过引入收入不确定性因素推导出住宅价格对城镇居民消费行为产生影响的理论模型。基于1999年~2014年我国31个省份年度面板数据,利用所建构的理论模型对我国城镇居民房地产财富进行固定效应计量检验。结果表明:在收入不确定性情境下,我国城镇居民房地产财富效应虽然显著,但影响方向并不一致。一方面房地产价格上涨对于非居住消费的影响显著为正;另一方面房地产价格上涨对于居住消费的影响显著为负。因此,必须采取抑制房地产市场过度投机需求、优化居民资产结构和降低收入不确定性等策略,有效促进我国城镇居民消费持续升级。
In order to scientifically test the real estate wealth effect of urban residents in our country and take the life cycle-long-term income hypothesis as the theoretical basis, this paper deduces the theoretical model of the impact of residential prices on the urban residents’ consumption behavior by introducing the factors of income uncertainty. Based on the annual panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1999 to 2014, this paper uses the theoretical model constructed to test the fixed effects of urban residents’ real estate wealth in our country. The results show that although the wealth effect of real estate in urban residents in our country is significant under the situation of uncertainty of income, the direction of impact is not the same. On the one hand, the impact of rising real estate prices on non-residential consumption is significantly positive; on the other hand, the impact of rising real estate prices on residential consumption is significantly negative. Therefore, we must take measures to curb excessive speculation in the real estate market, optimize the structure of residents ’assets and reduce the uncertainty of income, so as to effectively promote the continuous upgrading of urban residents’ consumption in China.