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利用1996—2014年中国大陆与中国台湾地区水产品出口贸易数据,采用恒定市场份额模型对海峡两岸水产品对东盟市场出口增长的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1)两岸水产品对东盟市场出口增长受到国际市场贸易政策变化的影响。2)东盟市场需求增长是两岸对东盟市场出口增长的主要原因。3)中国大陆对东盟市场总体竞争效应不断增强,但在需求量较大的市场其竞争力提升较慢;中国台湾水产品在东盟市场的竞争力不断增强,但受困于自身渔业发展瓶颈,近年来竞争效应的比重有所下降。4)随着市场的融合,两岸水产品出口与东盟水产品进口需求的匹配度越来越高。针对两岸在东盟市场出口增长的影响因素,本研究提出二者在东盟市场渔业合作的对策建议:力求出口与需求相匹配,加强两岸渔业领域的深层次合作,两岸合作共同投资开发东盟市场,开展差异性的营销策略。
Based on the data of export trade of aquatic products between mainland China and Taiwan of China from 1996 to 2014, the paper uses the constant market share model to analyze the influencing factors of the cross-Strait aquatic products export to ASEAN. The results showed that: 1) The growth of the export of aquatic products to the ASEAN market across the Taiwan Strait was affected by the changes in the international trade policy. 2) ASEAN market demand growth is the main reason for cross-Strait export growth to the ASEAN market. 3) The overall competitive effect of mainland China on the ASEAN market continues to grow, but its competitiveness in slower-growing markets has been slower. The competitiveness of Chinese Taiwan’s aquatic products in the ASEAN market has been continuously enhanced. However, due to the bottleneck in the development of its own fishery, The proportion of competition effects has declined in recent years. 4) With the convergence of the market, the matching degree between the cross-strait aquatic products export and the ASEAN aquatic products import demand is getting higher and higher. In view of the factors influencing the cross-Strait export growth in the ASEAN market, this study proposes countermeasures and suggestions on the cooperation between the two parties in the ASEAN market: seeking to match export with demand, strengthening deep-seated cooperation in fishery across the Taiwan Strait, cross-Strait cooperation in joint investment in developing ASEAN market, Differentiated marketing strategy.