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本文利用中国季度宏观经济模型(CMQQ)模拟了债务置换和控制地方政府债务规模的宏观经济效应。结果显示:2010~2012年,如果债务置换可以使实际贷款加权利率分别下降0.02百分点、0.44百分点和0.44百分点,GDP增速将较基准值分别提高0.01百分点、0.11百分点和0.42百分点;在此基础上,进一步控制地方政府债务总规模,降低货币供给,依旧可以维持几乎同等的GDP增长率。这就意味着,如果采取适当的方法与节奏优化地方政府融资结构,限制地方政府债务规模,非但不会产生严重的宏观经济负面影响,反而可以通过优化资金资源配置,促进私营投资增加,从而提高资金使用效率,降低物价水平,推动居民消费进而推动整体经济的稳定增长。
This paper uses China’s quarterly macroeconomic model (CMQQ) to simulate the macroeconomic effects of debt replacement and control of local government debt. The results show that from 2010 to 2012, if the debt replacement can reduce the real loan-weighted interest rates by 0.02 percentage point, 0.44 percentage point and 0.44 percentage point respectively, the GDP growth rate will increase by 0.01 percentage point, 0.11 percentage point and 0.42 percentage point respectively from the baseline value; on this basis , Further control of the total scale of local government debt, reduce the money supply, still can maintain almost the same GDP growth rate. This means that if we adopt proper methods and careers to optimize the local government financing structure and limit the scale of local government debt, we will not only have a serious negative impact on the macroeconomy, but will instead increase the private investment by optimizing the allocation of capital resources. The efficiency of capital utilization, the lowering of the price level, the promotion of household consumption and the promotion of the steady growth of the overall economy.