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为分析海洋油气管道的失效可能性,首先建立海底油气管道失效可能性评价指标体系,它包括腐蚀、第三方破坏、环境、误操作、管道自身和安全管理6大方面的21个因素。考虑到诸指标间的影响,用熵权法与超标倍数赋权法相结合的改进综合权重法确定权重。用基于集对分析的海底油气管道失效可能性评价方法评价某海域5段不同的管段。根据指标分值,得出各管段最大联系度,以判定其失效可能性。结果表明,集对分析法对指标分值的处理结果与实际情况基本符合,可应用于海底油气管道的失效可能性分析。
In order to analyze the possibility of failure of offshore oil and gas pipelines, the paper first establishes the evaluation index system for the possibility of submarine oil-gas pipelines failure, which includes 21 factors in 6 major aspects of corrosion, third party damage, environment, misoperation, pipelines themselves and safety management. Taking into account the impact of the indicators, the method of weighting is determined by the improved comprehensive weighting method which is a combination of the entropy weighting method and the exceeding multiple weighting method. Based on the set pair analysis, the submarine oil and gas pipeline failure possibility evaluation method was used to evaluate five different pipe sections in a certain sea area. According to the index score, get the maximum contact degree of each pipe, in order to determine the possibility of failure. The results show that the result of the set pair analysis method is basically consistent with the actual situation and can be applied to the analysis of the possibility of failure of the seabed oil and gas pipelines.