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全球出现了连锁性萧条近两年来,美日欧等工业发达国家都同时陷入经济衰退之中,加拿大和英国比美国的经济衰退时间还长,程度也更深,这是近10年来少有的现象。1992年7月16日,德国联邦银行拒绝美国政府的要求而把利率从8%一下子就提高到8.75%,达到了二次大战后的最高点。这是导致近三四个月来西方金融市场急剧动荡的直接原因。因德国利率大大高于美国等几个经济大国的利率水平,造成美元汇价暴跌,德国汇价猛涨。如在伦敦外汇市场,7月3日是1美元兑换1.5195马克,8月20日是1美元兑换1.4515马克,9月1日是1美元兑换1.3935马克,仅为1985年时1美元兑换2.80马克的约一半。马克的汇价日益坚挺,使英镑和意大利里拉等弱势货币均受到巨大冲击,人们在外汇市场上纷纷抛售英镑和里拉,大量购进马克,从而使英镑和里拉对马克的比价一再下跌,使欧洲货币体系陷于混乱和危机。
In the past two years, the industrialized developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Europe and the EU all plunged into a recession at the same time. Canada and Britain have enjoyed a longer and deeper economic recession than the United States, a rare phenomenon in the past 10 years . On July 16, 1992, the Bundesbank raised the interest rate from 8% to 8.75% at a time when it refused the request of the U.S. government and reached the highest point after World War II. This is the direct cause of the sharp turmoil in the western financial markets in the past 34 months. Due to the fact that Germany’s interest rate is much higher than the interest rates of several major economic powers such as the United States, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar plummeted and the German exchange rate soared. For example, in the London foreign exchange market, July 1 is the exchange rate of 1.5195 mark for 1 U.S. dollar, 1.4515 mark for 1 U.S. dollar exchange rate on August 20, and 1.3935 mark for 1 U.S. dollar exchange rate on September 1, only 2.80 U.S. dollar for 1985 About half. Mark’s exchange rate has been steadily strengthening, so that sterling and Italian lira and other vulnerable currencies have been a tremendous impact on the foreign exchange market, people have to sell sterling and lira, a large number of buy Mark, so that the pound and lira mark against the price again and again, the European currency The system is in chaos and crisis.