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本文通过邢台余震区多学科的定点观测资料与综合分析预报的具体实践经验提出了邢台余震区综合分析的基本思路和综合预报的具体作法。基本思路是:一、单台单项的资料分析是综合分析的基础;二、地震活动性的分析是综合分析的背景;三、各种前兆现象的内在联系是综合分析的关键。具体作法是:一、据多台单项异常距未来强余震发震时间的统计关系结合小震活动的趋势与可能出现的临震征兆预报强余震的发震时间;二、由各单项异常与震源距离的统计关系仿测震学的解法预报强余震的发震地点;三、根据单项对不同震级的反映距离和异常幅度与震级的关系预报强余震的震级。
Based on the multidisciplinary fixed-point observation data and comprehensive practical experience in Xingtai aftershock area, this paper presents the basic idea of comprehensive analysis of aftershock area in Xingtai and the specific methods of comprehensive forecasting. The basic idea is: First, a single data analysis is the basis of comprehensive analysis; Second, the analysis of seismicity is a comprehensive analysis of the background; Third, the intrinsic link of a variety of precursors is the key to comprehensive analysis. The specific measures are as follows: 1. According to the statistical relationship between multiple anomalies and the occurrence of strong aftershocks in the future, combining with the trend of small earthquakes and the possible occurrence of imminent earthquake signs, the occurrence time of strong aftershocks can be predicted. Second, The relationship between the distance and the statistical analysis of seismological and seismological methods to predict the occurrence of strong aftershocks; Third, according to a single reflection of different magnitudes and magnitude of anomalous magnitude and magnitude of the relationship between the magnitude of strong aftershocks forecast.