论文部分内容阅读
由德国 ifo 研究所和国际商会(ICC)最近完成的、来自91个国家(包括中国)1118位世界经济学家调查显示,2005年4月世界经济学家信心指数为97.5(1995年为100),是自2004年4月以来连续第五次下降(2004年4月、7月、10月和2005年1月的经济学家信心指数分别为110.1、109.2、103.8、101.1),不过仍高于1990—2004年的长期平均值94.0的水平。目前世界经济仍处在降温阶段。当前判断:温和下滑是世界经济总体走势。过去两年全球经济实现快速增长,并于2004年中期达到峰值。根据国际货币基金组织测算,去年世界经济增长5%左右,为近三十年之最。其增长动力主要来自于中国和亚洲其他国家经济高速增长,以及美国和日本的经济复苏。2004年底世界经济转入降温阶段。经济学家预计未来几个月的经济增长将进一步减缓。不过,由于决定短期经济增长的主要指标仍较乐观,这种增长速度放慢将是比较温和的。
A recent survey of 1118 world economists from 91 countries (including China), conducted recently by the German institute for the study of ifo and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), showed that the World Bank’s confidence index was 97.5 in April 2005 (compared with 100 in 1995) , The fifth consecutive drop since April 2004 (economists’ confidence index in April, July, October and January 2004 were 110.1, 109.2, 103.8 and 101.1 respectively), but still higher than The long-term average of 94.0 in 1990-2004. At present, the world economy is still in a phase of cooling down. Current Judgment: A Moderate Decline is the Overall Trend of the World Economy. The global economy has seen rapid growth in the past two years and peaked in mid-2004. According to the calculations of the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth last year was about 5%, the highest in nearly three decades. Its growth momentum mainly comes from the rapid economic growth of China and other Asian countries, as well as the economic recovery of the United States and Japan. By the end of 2004, the world economy has entered a phase of cooling down. Economists expect economic growth to slow further in the coming months. However, since the key indicators that determine short-term economic growth are still optimistic, such a slowdown will be milder.