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为了克服传统4阶段法中对于现实条件的不合理假设,以需求不确定性为基本前提,将优化方案分为动态策略和静态策略2种,以成本回收和路段更新为约束条件,使用实物期权解决了优化策略灵活性价值的问题,给出了考虑时间因素的不确定优化模型,同时确定了交通网络的最终形态和建设序列,克服了传统网络优化不考虑决策方案灵活性的问题。随后使用基于最小二乘蒙特卡洛、遗传算法的网络优化模型的求解方法,实现了对问题的有效求解,并给出了算例。Nguyen Dupuis网络的计算结果表明:(1)实物期权可以有效地描述建设方案的灵活性,提高决策的合理性;(2)期权的价值随着需求波动性的增加而提高,建设方案也会提前;(3)实物期权更加符合交通建设适度超前的概念。
In order to overcome the unreasonable assumptions of the traditional 4-stage method on the real conditions, based on the uncertainty of demand, the optimization scheme is divided into two kinds: dynamic strategy and static strategy. The cost recovery and road section renewal are used as constraints and the real option The problem of optimizing the flexibility of strategy is solved. An uncertain optimization model considering the time factor is given. The final shape and construction sequence of the traffic network are also determined, which overcomes the problem that the traditional network optimization does not consider the flexibility of the decision scheme. Then, the solving method of network optimization model based on least-squares Monte Carlo and genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem effectively, and an example is given. The calculation results of Nguyen Dupuis network show that: (1) Real option can effectively describe the flexibility of construction plan and improve the rationality of decision; (2) The value of option increases with the increase of demand volatility, and the construction plan will advance ; (3) real options more in line with the concept of moderate advance of traffic construction.