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为系统分析油气罐区安全水平各影响因子,求证罐区安全水平与安全投入的相关性,基于系统动力学(SD)的理论和方法,构建罐区安全水平影响因子SD模型。首先从人的安全行为、安全管理和设备3个宏观维度建立因果循环图;然后结合微观因子构建存量流量图,从宏观和微观角度对罐区安全水平影响因子进行定性、定量动态仿真。结果表明:提高油气罐区安全水平需要长期持续的安全投入,在同等时间内,各宏观因子平均增长率从大到小依次是人的安全行为水平、安全管理水平、设备安全水平;微观因子中安全教育培训对罐区安全水平影响最大。加强对罐区安全管理中人的安全行为及安全教育培训的安全投入及日常监管可提高油气罐区安全水平。
In order to systematically analyze the influence factors of the safety level of the oil and gas tank farm and verify the correlation between the safety level of the tank farm and the safety investment, the SD model of the safety level of the tank farm is constructed based on the theory and method of System Dynamics (SD). Firstly, a causal cycle diagram is established from the three dimensions of human safety behavior, safety management and equipment. Then, the flow diagram of stock is constructed based on microfactors, and qualitative and quantitative dynamic simulation is conducted on the factors influencing the safety level of tank farm from macro and micro perspectives. The results show that increasing the safety level of the oil and gas tank farm requires long-term continuous safety investment. From the largest to the smallest, the average growth rate of all macroeconomic factors is the level of human safety behavior, safety management and equipment safety in the same time; Safety education and training have the greatest impact on the safety level of the tank farm. Strengthen the safe management of tank farm safety and safety education and safety training and investment in daily supervision can improve the safety level of oil and gas tank farm.