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高铁的快速发展打破了传统运输格局的平衡,高铁对沿线公路客运的影响程度因地区、城市差异,不能笼统地一概而论。本文从经济要素、时间要素、品质属性、运输效率等影响居民出行决策关键因素分析着手,构建了公铁竞争的Logit模型。在此基础上提出了高铁对公路客运的影响评价方法,该方法从高铁客流构成和出行距离分布特性分析入手,紧密结合公铁竞争曲线特性,判定高铁对公路客运的影响系数与影响等级,最后分析了武广高铁对广东省境内城市影响程度。
The rapid development of high-speed rail has broken the balance of the traditional transport pattern. The impact of high-speed rail on the passenger transport along the highway will not be generalized due to the regional and urban differences. This article starts from the analysis of the key factors that affect the residents’ travel decision-making from economic factors, time elements, quality attributes and transportation efficiency, and establishes the Logit model of the public-railway competition. On this basis, the method of evaluating the impact of HSR on highway passenger traffic is proposed. The method starts with the composition and travel distance distribution characteristics of HSR passenger traffic. The method is based on the characteristics of the public railway competition curve to determine the influence factors and influence levels of HSR on highway passenger transport. Finally, The impact of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway on the cities in Guangdong Province was analyzed.