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出口产品长期依赖少数初级产品和劳动密集型产品导致出口产品结构单一,将不利于我国出口贸易的平稳增长,出口产品扩张问题已经刻不容缓。本文采用UN-COMTRADE数据库中2000~2011年HS6分位数据并构建二项选值模型Logit模型和Probit模型对不同标准加权的出口经验变量对出口产品扩张带来的影响及出口产品扩张的路径依赖进行了研究。研究结果显示,与新产品之间临近度较小的老产品的出口经验显著提高了该产品向同一目的国市场的扩张概率,出口的产品扩张存在显著的路径依赖。
The long-term dependence of export products on a few primary products and labor-intensive products leads to a single export product structure, which will not be conducive to the steady growth of China’s export trade. The issue of export product expansion has become imperative. In this paper, we use the HS6 quantile data from 2000 to 2011 in UN-COMTRADE database and construct the binary selection model Logit model and Probit model to examine the effect of export empirical variables weighted by different standards on the expansion of export products and the path dependence of export products expansion Were studied. The results of the study show that the export experience of old products with less close proximity to new products significantly increases the probability of expansion of the product to the same destination market and a significant path dependence of export expansion.