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目的:探讨降钙素原(PCT)预测急性胆源性胰腺炎(ABP)患者死亡的临床价值。方法:回顾性分析2013年1月至2017年6月间上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院急诊科收治的196例发病7 d内的ABP患者的临床资料，根据临床结局将患者分为生存组(176例)和死亡组(20例)，比较两组患者入院时的临床特点、实验室指标(WBC、CRP、PCT水平)和急性生理与慢性健康评分(APACHEⅡ)、急性胰腺炎严重程度床边指数(BISAP)、改良Marshall评分、序贯器官衰竭评分(SOFA)和CT严重指数(CTSI)。绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)，计算曲线下面积(AUC)，评估PCT及各评分系统预测ABP患者发生死亡的效能，并通过Delong检测对各种指标在发病1～2 d、3～4 d、5～7 d的预测效能进行比较。结果:死亡组患者的血PCT水平及APACHEⅡ、BISAP、改良Marshal、SOFA、CTSI评分均显著高于生存组[6.98(3.12，13.64)μg/L比0.55(0.17，1.74)μg/L、12.00(6.00，18.75)比6.00(3.00，9.00)、3.20±1.47比1.59±1.05、2.85±0.37比1.96±0.64、5.50(4.00，9.50)比2.00(1.00，4.25)、5.05±2.33比3.39±1.74]，差异均有统计学意义(n P值均<0.05)。PCT预测ABP患者死亡的AUC值为0.881(95%n CI 0.820～0.938)，截断值为2.44，其预测价值和改良Marshall、BISAP、SOFA评分相当，但显著高于APACHEⅡ评分和CTSI(n P值均<0.05)。发病3～4 d的PCT AUC值高于改良Marshall、BISAP、SOFA评分，且显著高于发病1～2 d的AUC值。n 结论:PCT可用于评估发病7 d内ABP患者的死亡概率，其评估价值与改良Marshall、BISAP、SOFA评分相当，评估的最佳时间点为发病3～4 d。“,”Objective:To explore the clinical value of procalcitonin (PCT) in predicting mortality of patients with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP).Methods:The clinical data of 196 ABP patients admitted in the emergency department of Ruijin Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University Medical College from January 2013 to June 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. The enrolled patients were divided into survival group (n n=176) and death group (n n=20) according to clinical outcome, and their clinical characteristics, laboratory results(including WBC, CRP, PCT), APACHEⅡ score, BISAP score, modified Marshall score, SOFA score and CTSI at admission were compared between two groups. The ROC curve and AUC were used to evaluate the effectiveness of PCT and multiple scoring systems in predicting mortality in ABP patients, and the Delong test was used to compare the predictive efficacy of various methods at 1-2 d, 3-4 d, and 5-7 d days after onset.n Results:The PCT level, APACHEⅡ score, BISAP score, modified Marshall score, SOFA score, and CTSI of patients in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group [6.98(3.12, 13.64) μg/L n vs 0.55(0.17, 1.74) μg/L, 12.00(6.00, 18.75) n vs 6.00(3.00, 9.00), 3.20±1.47 n vs 1.59±1.05, 2.85±0.37 n vs 1.96±0.64, 5.50(4.00, 9.50) n vs 2.00(1.00, 4.25), 5.05±2.33 n vs 3.39±1.74], and all the differences were statistically significant (all n P values <0.05). The AUC of PCT for predicting death was 0.881 (95% n CI 0.820-0.938)and the cut-off value was 2.44. The predictive value of PCT was similar to that of the modified Marshall score, BISAP score and SOFA score, but higher than that of APACHEⅡ score and CTSI (all n P values <0.05). The predictive AUC of PCT at 3-4 days after onset was higher than that of modified Marshall score, BISAP score and SOFA score, and were significantly higher than those at 1-2 days after onset.n Conclusions:PCT can be used to predict the mortality of ABP within 7 days of onset. The predictive value of PCT was comparable to the modified Marshall score, BISAP score and SOFA score, and the best predictive time was 3-4 days after onset.