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目的探讨葫芦岛市细菌性痢疾发病人数的变动规律并进行外推预测。方法收集辽宁省葫芦岛市1990-2009年的逐月和逐年细菌性痢疾疫情资料。首先应用von Neumann秩趋势游程检验判定年发病人数是否存在随年代变动的长期趋势,然后利用移动平均比率法进行季节趋势拟合分析及外推预测。结果趋势游程检验提示发病人数存在下降趋势。移动平均比率法中,指数模型决定系数R2为0.895,具有统计学意义。结论移动平均比率法综合考虑长期、季节、周期及随机趋势,预测效果较好。
Objective To investigate the variation of the number of bacillary dysentery in Huludao City and to extrapolate it. Methods The epidemic situation of bacillary dysentery in Huludao city of Liaoning Province during 1990-2009 was analyzed. First, the von Neumann rank-order run test was used to determine whether there was a long-term trend of annual change with the age. Then the trend-averaged method was used to analyze the seasonal trend and extrapolate it. The results of the trend run test prompted the number of patients there is a downward trend. In the moving average ratio method, the coefficient R2 of the index model is 0.895, which is statistically significant. Conclusion The moving average ratio method takes the long-term, seasonal, periodic and random trends into consideration, and the forecasting effect is better.