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综合采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt突变点检验、Morlet小波分析及径流年内分配量化研究方法分析了长江大通站1946~2009年径流的变化趋势、突变、周期和年内分配特征。结果发现大通站年均、洪、枯季流量无明显变化趋势,但月均流量有明显变化趋势;年均流量无显著突变,但洪、枯季、月均流量均存在显著突变;流量序列存在10年以上的年代周期与10年以内的年际周期;径流年内分配在20世纪60、70、90年代相对集中,在21世纪初则相对均匀,年内径流主要集中于7、8月,年内变幅在20世纪60年代较大,在21世纪初较小。分析了大通站径流变化原因,以期为流域水资源的合理开发利用提供科学依据。
By using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the Pettitt mutation point test, the Morlet wavelet analysis and the annual quantitative distribution of runoff during the year, the trend, mutation, period and distribution characteristics of runoff during the period from 1946 to 2009 were analyzed. The results showed that there was no significant change in annual, flood and dry season flow rates in Datong station, but the average monthly flow rate showed a clear trend of change. There was no significant change in average annual flow rate, but there were significant changes in flood, dry season and monthly average flow rates. The annual cycle of more than 10 years and the inter-annual cycle of less than 10 years; the distribution of runoff during the 1960s, 1970s and 1990s was relatively concentrated, but relatively uniform at the beginning of the 21st century. The runoff mainly concentrated in July and August, The figures were larger in the 1960s and smaller in the early 2000s. The reasons of runoff variation in Datong Station are analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources in the basin.