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目的深入认识家鼠型鼠疫的发病机制,科学制定或选择相应的监控措施。方法以数学语言表达家鼠型鼠疫由鼠到人的传播途径,以彰显各发病决定因子之间的内在联系;对有关的家鼠型鼠疫监测方法进行分析比较。结果(1)导出家鼠型鼠疫发病(率)模式函数(式);(2)关联监测法与平行监测法比较,更符合流行病学原理和统计学要求,因而更有效;实际工作量更小,因而更符合“成本效益比”要求。结论(1)家鼠型鼠疫发病率模式函数彰显了各发病因子间的内在联系,对家鼠型鼠疫的预防控制具有普遍的指导意义和广阔的应用前景;(2)家鼠型鼠疫的监测应采用关联监测法,不应采用平行监测法。
Objective To deeply understand the pathogenesis of house mouse type plague and make or scientifically select the appropriate monitoring measures. Methods The expression of the mouse-to-human transmission of the house mouse-type plague in mathematical language was demonstrated in order to demonstrate the intrinsic relationship between the determinants of each disease. The relative surveillance methods of house-mouse type plague were analyzed and compared. Results (1) Derived the model function (formula) of onset (rate) of house mouse type plague; (2) Compared with the parallel monitoring method, the correlation monitoring method is more in line with the epidemiological principles and statistical requirements and thus more effective; the actual workload is more Small, and therefore more in line with the “cost-effective” requirement. Conclusions (1) The mode function of incidence rate of house mouse type plague demonstrates the intrinsic relationship among the pathogenesis factors, and has general guiding significance and broad application prospects for the prevention and control of house mouse type plague. (2) The monitoring of house mouse type plague Associated monitoring should be used, parallel monitoring should not be used.