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文章构建IS-LM-BP模型并借助1994年1月～2008年6月(174个样本)月度时间序列数据,对我国物价波动及其传导机制进行实证研究。结果发现:外汇储备、进出口贸易和物价之间存在长期协整关系;短期和长期内货币供应量和外汇储备对物价波动均产生正向冲击;进出口贸易是物价波动的格兰杰原因,但外汇储备不是物价波动的格兰杰原因;脉冲响应证实进出口贸易和货币供应量短期内减缓物价波动,但是长期内对物价波动冲击效应显著,加剧物价波动。由此可见,在开放经济发展过程中,不能忽视物价波动的外部传导机制,内外经济问题都需要高度关注。
This paper builds the IS-LM-BP model and conducts empirical research on the price volatility and its transmission mechanism in China from January 1994 to June 2008 (174 samples) monthly time series data. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between foreign exchange reserves, import and export trade and prices; the money supply and foreign exchange reserves in the short and long term have a positive impact on price fluctuations; import and export trade is Granger reason for price fluctuations, However, foreign exchange reserves are not the Granger causes of price fluctuations. Impulse responses confirm that import and export trade and money supply slow down price volatility in the short term, but the impact on price volatility in the long run is significant, exacerbating price volatility. Thus we can see that in the course of opening up the economy, we can not ignore the external transmission mechanism of price fluctuations. Both domestic and foreign economic issues need to be highly concerned.