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以百万以上人口城市为研究对象,采用系统GMM的方法实证分析了对外贸易对城市人口规模的影响。研究结果表明,国际贸易的发展能够显著促进城市人口规模的扩大,平均而言,国际贸易额每增加10%,城市人口规模将会增加0.23%;职工工资、产业结构、政府支出等均能够显著影响城市人口规模。进一步的分析表明,对外贸易对城市人口规模的影响可以通过第二产业和第三产业的发展实现;对外贸易对城市人口规模的影响存在明显的地域差异。
With the population of more than 1 million people as the research object, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of foreign trade on the urban population scale by using the method of systematic GMM. The results show that the development of international trade can significantly promote the expansion of urban population. On average, each increase of 10% of the international trade will increase the urban population by 0.23%. The wage, industrial structure and government expenditure of the employees can all be significantly increased Affect the size of the urban population. Further analysis shows that the impact of foreign trade on the size of the urban population can be achieved through the development of secondary and tertiary industries. There are obvious geographical differences in the impact of foreign trade on the urban population.