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研究发现可以使用金融状况指数(FCI)的各解释变量预测消费者价格指数(CPI),本文试图考察这一命题。本文创新之处在于:在前人研究的基础上,将货币供给量(M2)加入到FCI中,使其更为有效的反映一国的金融形势和状况。M2的加入是基于一个事实:法定存款准备金率、再贴现政策和公开市场业务在一定程度上影响了货币供给量的大小,M2对于中国金融状况起到举足轻重的作用。
The study found that the consumer price index (CPI) can be predicted using explanatory variables from the financial status index (FCI), and this article attempts to examine this proposition. The innovation of this paper lies in: Based on the previous studies, we add the money supply (M2) into the FCI to make it more effective to reflect the financial situation and conditions in a country. The addition of M2 is based on the fact that the statutory deposit reserve ratio, rediscount policies and open market operations have to a certain extent affected the size of the money supply. M2 plays a decisive role in China’s financial situation.