市内电话发展受许多相关因素的影响,因此预测相对复杂些,特别是长期预测,由于缺少必要的资料和手段,往往造成对预测准确性的怀疑.本文较详细地分析了市内电话发展的特点,提出了应用系统动力学预测市内电话长期发展的新的预测方法,并通过对广州市内电话发展的预测分析检验了模型的可行性. The development of local telephone is affected by many related factors, so the prediction is relatively complicated, especially the long-term prediction, which often leads to the doubt on the accuracy of prediction due to the lack of the necessary information and means.This paper analyzes in more detail the development of local telephone Characteristics, put forward a new forecasting method that predicts the long-term development of telephones in the city by using system dynamics and tests the feasibility of the model by predicting the development of telephones in Guangzhou.