鉴于三峡库区降雨标准化、定量化研究对库区降雨型滑坡稳定性评价与预测具有重要意义,采用数学期望公式(Weibull公式)与P-Ⅲ型频率曲线相结合,在海森几率格纸上绘制降雨频率曲线的方法求取不同降雨重现期时万州区4~6月单次最大降雨过程,在此基础上,以万州区某滑坡为例,对稳定性与破坏概率进行计算。结果表明,通过降雨频率曲线,可以找到不同极值降雨过程重现期对应的降雨量;库水位下降期间浸润线逐渐趋于凸型;该滑坡是库水+暴雨复合型滑坡;在20年(及以上)一遇暴雨与库水位联合作用下,滑坡将达到欠稳定状态。 In view of the standardization and quantification of rainfall in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, it is of great significance to evaluate and predict the stability of rainfall-type landslide in the reservoir area. By combining the mathematical expectation formula (Weibull formula) and P-Ⅲ frequency curve, Draw a rainfall frequency curve method to obtain the maximum rainfall process from April to June in Wanzhou District at different rainfall periods. Based on this, taking a landslide in Wanzhou District as an example, the stability and failure probability are calculated. The results show that the rainfall corresponding to the recurrence periods of different extreme rainfall processes can be found through the rainfall frequency curve. The saturation line tends to be convex during the decline of reservoir water level. The landslide is a combination of reservoir water and heavy rainfall. After 20 years And above) Under the combined action of heavy rainfall and reservoir water level, the landslide will reach a state of under-stability.