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20世纪90年代以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡一直制约着区域可持续发展,京津冀协同发展逐步成为社会共识。本文综合DMSP/OLS夜间灯光和可比GDP构建地区生产总值指数以量化评估区域经济发展水平,并分别从失衡溢出特征(采用增量空间自相关分析和多距离空间聚类分析)和外溢效用距离(SDM空间计量分析)探讨经济发展失衡的溢出效应,量化评估经济发展热点的正向外溢和经济发展冷点的负向外溢。结果表明,(1)不同评估尺度下京津冀地区经济失衡溢出都有总体相似的时间阶段性特征和空间地域性特征,先呈显著集聚后趋于离散,大致形成1992-1999年和2000-2013年2个时段与60km和100km左右为界3个地段。1992-2000年不断显化的经济失衡在2000年以来不断弱化。2000年以后区县区划对区域经济失衡趋于加剧。(2)经济热点的正向溢出和经济冷点的负向溢出有明显差异,经济冷点负向溢出距离约为130km,120km距离内的经济热点有明显虹吸效应,正向溢出效应并不显著。交通等基础设施网络不断健全,区域虹吸效应距离从20世纪90年代的95km外延至21世纪初的115km左右。
The unbalanced economic development in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei since the 1990s has restricted the sustainable development in the region. The coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has gradually become a social consensus. Based on DMSP / OLS night light and comparable GDP, this paper constructs the GDP index to quantitatively evaluate the level of regional economic development. From the characteristics of unbalanced overflow (using incremental spatial autocorrelation analysis and multi-range spatial clustering analysis) and spillover utility distance (SDM Spatial Econometrics Analysis) explores the spillover effect of unbalanced economic development, quantitatively assess the positive spillover of economic development hotspots and the negative spillover of economic development cold spots. The results show that: (1) The economic imbalances in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at different assessment scales have similar overall characteristics of time-period characteristics and spatial-regional characteristics. After being agglomerated first, they tend to be discrete and roughly form the 1992-1999 and 2000- In 2013 two periods and 60km and 100km or so for the community 3 lots. The constantly manifest economic imbalance of 1992-2000 has been steadily weakened since 2000. After 2000, the disparity of regional economy tends to aggravate to regional economy. (2) The positive spillover of economic hot spots and the negative spillover of economic cold spots are obviously different. The negative spillover distance of economic cold spots is about 130km. The economic hotspots within 120km distance have obvious siphon effect, and the positive spillover effect is not significant . Traffic and other infrastructure networks are continuously improved. The siphon effect range of the area has been extended from 95 km in the 1990s to 115 km in the early 21st century.