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行业预测关键假设驱动因素、关键假设及主要预测——1、预计2009~2010年我国水泥产量的增速分别为7%与10%左右。城镇化进程加速是2009年水泥行业投资的主线。包括地震灾后重建在内的推进农业现代化以及城乡经济社会发展一体化,是水泥需求增长的主要动力源。2010年前强制淘汰2.5亿吨的落后产能,将拓展新型干法水泥的市场空间。由于“先破后立”的制度安排,供给方面有可能出现阶段性缺口。
Key Drivers, Key Assumptions and Key Forecasts for Industry Prediction - 1. It is estimated that the growth rate of China’s cement output will be 7% and 10% respectively from 2009 to 2010. The acceleration of urbanization is the main investment in the cement industry in 2009. The promotion of agricultural modernization including the post-earthquake reconstruction and the integration of urban and rural economic and social development are the main driving forces for the growth of cement demand. Forced elimination of 250 million tons of backward production capacity by 2010 will expand the market for new dry process cement. Because of the institutional arrangement of “breaking after the first”, there may be a periodic gap in the supply side.