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本文在对影响油井含水的地质及开发因素分析的基础上，用数值模拟方法建立了油水井间不同砂体连通关系下，油井小层含水率预测模型。通过对大庆油田小井距试验区５０１井萨Ⅱ７＋８和葡Ⅰ１＋２两个单采油层含水率的预测及中区西部密井网试验区单层测试资料的验证，其结果与实际含水率符合较好。
Based on the analysis of the geological and developmental factors affecting the water cut in the oil well, a numerical model is established to predict the water cut in the oil well under the connectivity of different sand bodies. Based on the prediction of the water cut of two oil-bearing formations of Well Ⅱ 7 + 8 and Pu Ⅰ 1 + 2 in Well 501 of Daqing Oilfield, and the data of single-layer test in the test area of the Wellington Well in the west of China, the result is in good agreement with the actual moisture content.